Cicero Lima is a DSC in Applied Economics working at Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), São Paulo, Brazil. His research focuses on how different pathways for bioeconomy in Brazil can enhance the “green transition” toward a low-carbon economy based on biotechnology, environmental protection, and socially inclusive. He developed the Bio-GDP - a national metric to measure the economy value of bioeconomy in Brazil, also he co-developed the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment for Brazil (SIMPLE-BR and the SIMPLE-G-Brazil) a computational economic model of global agriculture which he extensively use in his research. The same way, he developed the Brazilian Economic Analysis (BREA) a general equilibrium model of Brazilian economy and agriculture. He has international experience working on several projects for WWF-UK, World Bank, Central Bank in Brazil, EMBRAPA-SRUC (Edinburgh), IDB, EMBRAPA-IABS-IDB. Currently, he is research economist at the Observatory of Knowledge and Innovation in Bioeconomy at FGV.
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D.Sc. in Applied Economics, 2017
Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Brazil
M.Sc. in Applied Economics, 2011
Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil
B.Sc. in Economics, 2007
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Brazil
Teaching undergrad courses:
A Reforma Tributária busca simplificar o complexo sistema tributário do Brasil, substituindo cinco impostos por apenas um novo tributo sobre o valor adicionado (IVA). O principal desafio é encontrar a alíquota ideal para um sistema tributário equilibrado, justo e competitivo. Estudo realizado pelo Centro de Estudos do Agronegócio da FGV (FGV Agro) aponta que a adoção uma alíquota reduzida para algumas atividades – entre elas produtos e insumos do agro – é fundamental para manutenção da produção, demanda e competitividade das cadeias agropecuárias. Como exemplo, zerar os impostos sobre a cesta básica gera quase 20 p.p. de queda no custo real dos alimentos para a população.
A produção da bioeconomia através da utilização de recursos biológicos e biomassa para a produção de alimentos, rações, produtos biológicos, bioenergia entre outros, equivale a 19,6% do PIB brasileiro. O PIB da Bioeconomia (PIB-Bio) somou R$ 1,447 trilhão em 2019 e apresenta um grande potencial de crescimento, entretanto precisa estar associado à governança ambiental, tecnologia e inovação.
The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are both well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. The agricultural impacts literature has mostly focused on the effects of climate change on crop yields. However, we find that labor force impacts are equally important up to +3C warming, relative to the 1986-2005 baseline, and these overlooked impacts are dominant in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30-50%, boosting food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector.
This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world.