Publications

High transportation costs have been a barrier to the expansion of agriculture in the interior of Brazil. To reduce transportation costs, Brazil launched the National Logistics Plan, aiming to expand its railway network by up to 91% by 2035. Such a large-scale infrastructure investment raises concerns about its economic and environmental consequences. By combining geospatial estimation of transportation cost with a grid-resolving, multi-scale economic model that bridges fine-scale crop production with its trade and demand from national and global perspectives, we explore impacts of transportation infrastructure expansion on agricultural production, land use changes, and carbon emissions both locally and nationally in Brazil. We find that globally, the impacts on output and land use changes are small. However, within Brazil, the plan’s primary impacts are impressive. PNL2035 results in the reduction of transportation costs by 8–23 % across states (depending on expansion’s extent) in the interior Cerrado biome. This results in cropland expansion and increases in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado region. However, the increase in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado is offset by spillover effects elsewhere in Brazil, as crop production shifts away from the Southeast-South regions and accompanying change in the mix of transportation mode for farm products from roadway to more emission-efficient railway. Furthermore, we argue that the transportation infrastructure’s impact on the enhanced mobility of labor and other agricultural inputs would further accentuate the regional shift in agricultural production and contribute to carbon emission mitigation. Upon its completion, PNL2035 is expected to result in the reduction of net national emissions by 1.8–30.7 million metric ton of CO2-equivalent, depending on the impacts on labor and purchased input mobility. We conclude that the omission of spillover effects due to infrastructure expansion can lead to misleading assessments of transport policies.

Reunidos em uma manifestação promovida pela FAEMG no mês passado, os produtores de leite mineiros reivindicaram o fim da concorrência desleal entre o Brasil, o Uruguai e a Argentina, especialmente, quanto ao leite em pó. Aponta-se que o governo argentino tem aplicado subsídios ao produto que configuram uma prática protecionista. Para lidar com essa questão, não basta que o governo mineiro retire as condições especiais de tributação das importadoras de leite. É preciso estruturar ações tecnológicas, logísticas e tributárias que fortaleçam a produção nacional, potencializando os diferenciais do leite brasileiro em relação ao leite importado.

Entre 2000 e 2010, a participação do Brasil em volume mundialmente exportado cresceu a incríveis 4,2% a.a. e em valor a 5,7% a.a. Já entre 2011 e 2022, o crescimento da participação em volume recuou para 2,4% a.a., enquanto, em valor, ficou estável a 0,1% a.a. Em outras palavras, a manutenção da inserção internacional do agronegócio deu-se muito mais pela sua capacidade de produção e intensificação do que por condições externas de demanda ou aumento dos preços.

The demand- and supply-side drivers connected to the “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSP) will impact future agriculture. Assessing the projected impacts of those drivers on regional and global agriculture requires approaches that goes beyond the traditional biophysical sciences’ methods and tools. The present work uses a static partial equilibrium model for global agriculture that incorporates into the analysis the effects of economic responses to scarcity affecting regional and global agricultural production and land use. By 2050, agricultural output will expand, but at different rates depending on the region and on the SSP-productivity scenario. Yield gains will consolidate as a major driver, but cropland expansion will still play an important role, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. The SSP1 (Sustainability), fast technological development scenario, offers a promising perspective to increase global agricultural output and reduce pressures for cropland expansion. Under SSP1 scenario, food insecurity would drop the most, to 2.8% of world population by 2050. Achieving the Sustainability scenario will require an articulated global effort to strengthening agricultural R&D expenditures accompanied by a well-designed strategy to translate science into problem-solving knowledge and technologies that could be successfully transferred and adopted by farmers to boost productivity gains over the next three decades.

No Brasil, métricas como “cabeças por hectare” são comumente utilizadas para medir a produtividade do segmento. No entanto, essa unidade de medida desconsidera o efeito do desempenho animal (quantidade de carne por animal), estando, portanto, em desacordo com a literatura científica. Além disso, a dinâmica da cadeia produtiva dificulta a rastreabilidade, que permitiria que essas medidas fossem feitas de forma mais precisa em larga escala. Os consumidores no mercado interno, em sua maioria, apresentam um nível mais baixo de renda e pouca disposição para pagar mais em função da qualidade e da origem da carne, o que gera um desestímulo ao uso de instrumentos de monitoramento e rastreabilidade.

O fator verde pode captar diferentes fontes de valor da bioeconomia. A expectativa global é de que o avanço da transição climática do Planeta consolide a influência do fator verde no arranjo da economia global. A tendência é a internalização dos custos climáticos e ambientais nos negócios, na gestão dos países, no comércio e na geopolítica. Países com economias baseadas em degradação ambiental tendem a enfrentar restrições ao crescimento, enquanto investimentos financeiros e consumidores exigentes tendem a perseguir atividades e produtos sustentáveis.

A Reforma Tributária busca simplificar o complexo sistema tributário do Brasil, substituindo cinco impostos por apenas um novo tributo sobre o valor adicionado (IVA). O principal desafio é encontrar a alíquota ideal para um sistema tributário equilibrado, justo e competitivo. Estudo realizado pelo Centro de Estudos do Agronegócio da FGV (FGV Agro) aponta que a adoção uma alíquota reduzida para algumas atividades – entre elas produtos e insumos do agro – é fundamental para manutenção da produção, demanda e competitividade das cadeias agropecuárias. Como exemplo, zerar os impostos sobre a cesta básica gera quase 20 p.p. de queda no custo real dos alimentos para a população.

O Parlamento Europeu aprova medidas que buscam combater o desmatamento e reduzir a emissão de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) em bens e produtos consumidos pela União Europeia (UE). A nova legislação traz impactosndiretos sobre as exportações brasileiras para o bloco europeu, em especial sobre o agronegócio brasileiro, que tem a UE como o segundo principal destino das suas exportações.

The Brazil is one of the world’s leading producers and exporters of agricultural products, and it should continue to expand its production in the coming decades, remaining one of the main providers of food, fiber, and bioenergy for domestic and foreign consumption. This study aimed to analyze, by using Static Computable General Equilibrium model (BREA), the impacts on intermediate demand and the growth of agricultural production necessary for GDP to reach the expected projection for 2030, both for Brazilian macro-regions and for the MATOPIBA as well as the loss of native forest necessary for this happens. As a result, to compose the GDP growth in the North region, fruit growing would emerge with an increase of 9.2%. In MATOPIBA, soybean growth in suppressed forest areas showed an elevation of approximately 9.7%. It is observed that soy would continue to migrate to regions that hold cheap land and without the soybean moratorium embargo. The total amount of forests suppressed in Brazil for the expected economic growth to occur would be 490,000 ha. It is concluded that the economic growth related to the agricultural sectors is also linked to the conversion of native vegetation areas for future economic growth.

A produção da bioeconomia através da utilização de recursos biológicos e biomassa para a produção de alimentos, rações, produtos biológicos, bioenergia entre outros, equivale a 19,6% do PIB brasileiro. O PIB da Bioeconomia (PIB-Bio) somou R$ 1,447 trilhão em 2019 e apresenta um grande potencial de crescimento, entretanto precisa estar associado à governança ambiental, tecnologia e inovação.

Esse relatório apresenta de forma detalhada a metodologia proposta para a determinação do Produto Interno Bruto da Bioeconomia no Brasil (PIB-Bio). Assim como na determinação de outras cadeias de produção, a bioeconomia possui ligações com todas as demais atividades econômicas, tanto a montante quanto a jusante na cadeia de produção. Assim, o PIB-Bio envolve os segmentos de insumos, a produção agregada da bioeconomia, processamento de bioinsumos (bioindústria) e, por fim, serviços de distribuição, transporte, comercialização até o consumidor final ou para atender a demanda de exportações. A bioeconomia compreende a produção a partir de recursos biológicos renováveis e a conversão desses recursos e resíduos em produtos de valor agregado como alimentos, rações, produtos biológicos e bioenergia. Em suma, a bioeconomia é operada pelas atividades de agricultura e pecuária, silvicultura, pesca, alimentos, produção de celulose e papel, bem como partes das indústrias de químicos, biotecnológica e energética.

O propósito deste artigo foi avaliar os impactos da redução do custo de transporte para o setor de soja nas regiões brasileiras. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, foi simulada uma melhoria no sistema de transportes nas regiões brasileiras sobre o setor de soja e os impactos nos principias blocos comerciais, utilizando-se o modelo Projeto de Análise de Equilíbrio Geral da Economia Brasileira (PAEG). Os resultados mostraram que há diferentes efeitos no setor do grão da soja e em indicadores econômicos para cada grande região brasileira; as regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste prevaleceram nos ganhos de produção e exportação do grão da soja. Os resultados, no geral, foram coerentes com a literatura, mostrando que uma redução no custo de transporte levaria a melhores resultados para o Brasil; no entanto, os estudos averiguados não consideraram a desigualdade entre as regiões brasileiras, sendo esta inovação um importante diferencial deste trabalho.

A conjuntura social e econômica somada às já conhecidas demandas por uma produção de alimentos mais saudável e com impactos positivos para o clima e natureza tornam urgentes as transformações no sistema de produção agroalimentar, no qual o Brasil é protagonista. A boa notícia é que muitos dos múltiplos riscos enfrentados pelo sistema agroalimentar brasileiro podem ser mitigados, o que exige uma forte liderança política e engajamento do setor financeiro como investidor dessa cadeia de valor. Para saber mais, baixe o relatório completo aqui.

Esse artigo apresenta método para a determinação da cadeia de valor da Bioeconomia – PIB-Bio – bem como as relações de oferta dessas atividades com o restante da economia. Qualquer política agroambiental que afeta diretamente ou indiretamente a produção das atividades da bioeconomia não pode ser propriamente avaliada sem se conhecer o tamanho da sua cadeia de valor, e os efeitos dessas atividades sobre o restante da economia. Os multiplicadores de oferta são mais apropriados para a análise de impacto de políticas agroambientais que influenciam a oferta e produção dessas atividades quando comparados aos tradicionais multiplicadores de demanda. Os resultados indicam que a Bioeconomia representa cerca de 20% da geração de valor no Brasil. Independentemente da variabilidade dos multiplicadores é possível identificar as atividades com ligações indiretas comuns entre a bioeconomia de origem vegetal, animal e bioindústria, como serviços de energia e intermediação financeira.

…

Brazil has made significant investments in public agricultural research and development (R&D) over the past 50 years. This policy priority has allowed the country to achieve high levels of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, especially in the past two decades1,2. These investments have benefitted consumers, both in Brazil and worldwide. Brazil had not fully recovered from a recent economic recession (mid-2014 to 2016) when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Before COVID-19 public agricultural R&D expenditures in Brazil had already declined compared to its 2000-2017 levels2. The fiscal deterioration in the wake of this pandemic could further jeopardize Brazil’s capacity to invest in agricultural R&D. This paper explores the potential consequences of such a slowdown in public agricultural R&D expenditures in Brazil, and hence on productivity growth rates, land use, agricultural output, yields, and food prices at both the national and global levels over the 2017–2050 horizon.

Transportation cost has played an increasingly important role in Brazil agriculture, as the agricultural production frontier expands to inland area with less developed transportation network. High transportation cost would result in less agricultural profitability, which further reduces input use and causes lower yield. To deal with this problem, Brazil has set ambitious plan on improving transportation infrastructure, but its impact on agricultural production and deforestation remains unknown. To research the implications of transportation cost for Brazil agriculture and environment, we developed an innovation method of estimating transportation cost on spatial level for Brazil, and research the impact of projected transportation cost reduction with a grid-resolving partial equilibrium model on Brazilian agriculture, on national, state level and spatial level. Results indicates that the reduction of transportation cost causes moderate increase in both crop production and cropland expansion. However, that impact shows strong variance on State level, causing concentration of input allocations and output production to states of Mato Grosso and Bahia. Finally, spatial pattern within each state are also identified, which would contribute to local-targeted agricultural and transportation policy making.

O presente estudo tem por objetivo apresentar o potencial de mitigação de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) da soja brasileira cultivada sob o plantio direto (PD) e sistema de plantio direto (SPD). Visa também mensurar o incremento de remoção de carbono resultante da introdução do componente florestal em lavouras de soja por meio da implementação de sistema integração-lavoura-floresta (ILF) em diferentes cenários para o Brasil até 2030, sendo eles implementação de ILF em 10%, 20% e 30% da área total de soja ao final do período.

In this paper, we assess the economy-wide impact of Climate Change (CC) on agriculture and food security in 20 Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. Specifically, we focus on the following three channels through which CC may affect agricultural and non-agricultural production (i) agricultural yields. (ii) labor productivity in agriculture, and (iii) economy-wide labor productivity. We implement the analysis using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) and databases for 20 LAC available through the OPEN IEEM Platform. Our analysis identifies those countries most affected according to key indicators including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), international commerce, sectoral output, poverty, and emissions. Most countries experience negative impacts on GDP, with the exception of the major soybean producing countries, namely, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. We find that CC-induced crop productivity and labor productivity changes affect countries differently. The combined impact, however, indicates that Belize, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Paraguay would fare the worst. Early identification of these hardest hit countries can enable policy makers pre-empting these effects and beginning the design of adaptation strategies early on. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, only Argentina, Chile and Uruguay would experience small increases in emissions.

Este relatório tem como objetivo apresentar uma avaliação quantitativa do potencial de mitigação de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEEs) gerado pelo incremento das tecnologias de recuperação de pastagens degradadas e sistemas de produção de Integração Lavoura-Pecuária-Floresta (ILPF) no Brasil até o ano de 2030. Para atingir esse objetivo foi desenvolvido um Modelo de projeção e mitigação para diferentes ações de descarbonização da pecuária, considerando um cenário de redução de pastagens degradadas e, consequente, incremento de áreas de sistemas de ILPF no país até o ano de 2030.

The majority of agricultural climate impact studies focus on crop yields, ignoring the impacts on labor productivity. The few studies on global labor productivity impacts of climate tend to ignore socioeconomic adaptations. This study provides a multi-scale and multi-sector analysis of how the socioeconomic system responds to lower labor capacity due to climate-induced heat stress. Combining the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) framework with high-resolution projections of climate and population, we quantify the cascading economic impacts of heat stress as it alters labor capacity in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Then we investigate the role of different adaptation solutions at local, regional, and global scales. This includes investing in automation, changing production location, labor migration, domestic and international trade, and changes in patterns of consumption as well as in the changes in the structure of national economies.

O agronegócio será um dos setores mais impactados com o aumento do Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS), medida esta tomada pelo governo do estado de São Paulo para reduzir o rombo nas contas públicas causado pela pandemia de COVID-19. O Centro de Agronegócio da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Agro) estima que a decisão causará uma perda de consumo de até BRL 21,4 bilhões em bens e serviços e uma redução de BRL 6,8 bilhões no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) da região Sudeste.

The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are both well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. The agricultural impacts literature has mostly focused on the effects of climate change on crop yields. However, we find that labor force impacts are equally important up to +3C warming, relative to the 1986-2005 baseline, and these overlooked impacts are dominant in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30-50%, boosting food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector.

Innovations in water management and irrigated agriculture powered water-scarce Middle Eastern economies for millennia. However, as water becomes scarcer because of population growth and economic development, and even more erratic because of climate change, the region’s water security is coming under increasing threat. This report applies an economic model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, to assess the economic impacts of water scarcity for six Middle Eastern countries and also to examine how water-use efficiency improvements and trade can mitigate these impacts. A 20 percent reduction in water supply could decrease GDP by up to 10 percent, compared to 2016 levels. Furthermore, increased water scarcity could reduce labor demand by up to 12 percent and lead to significant land-use changes, including loss of beneficial hydrological services. The report emphasizes how the growing dependence on shared water resources reinforces the need to manage water across boundaries. The message is clear - unless new and transformative policies for sustainable, efficient and cooperative water management are promoted, water scarcity will negatively impact the region’s economic prospects and undermine its human and natural capital.

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world.

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world.

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world.

…

Global Futures is a landmark study using cutting-edge modelling to explore the global economic impacts of natural capital depletion. It warns of potential risks to the world’s economic prosperity if we don’t act urgently to halt nature loss. The study uses new economic and environmental modelling to calculate the costs of nature’s decline across 140 countries and all key industry sectors. Taking six crucial ecosystem services that nature provides (including the supply of water for agriculture; supply of timber; marine fisheries; pollination of crops; protection from flooding, storm surges and erosion; and carbon storage to help protect us from climate change), the report analyses the future costs to world economies of failing to act on the destruction of our environment and biodiversity loss. This innovative method of analysis was created through a partnership between WWF, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the Natural Capital Project. Global Futures adds significant new weight to warnings that the continued loss of nature under ‘business as usual’ will have severe economic consequences, and that investing in nature is essential for future global economic prosperity. The work comes at a critical time, marking the start of a landmark year in which a series of global policy decisions will be made that will shape humanity’s development and our relationship with nature for decades to come. We hope that this report, alongside other evidence, will encourage and enable world leaders to take decisive action to restore nature for our future prosperity before it is too late.

Land use change, its drivers, and its consequences have been discussed for a long time. Drivers such as increases in human population with additional needs for food, changes in the types of food as wealth and urbanization rates increase, demand for energy and fiber, and enhanced transportation and the development of roads have all been cited (among others) as causes of deforestation. Biofuels have gained notoriety in driving land use change and have also been singled out as an important source of deforestation, as grains and oils traditionally used for food are diverted toward bioenergy, spurring the need to expand production to satisfy nutritional requirements. Additional production can be attained by increasing the amount of land used by obtaining higher yields per unit of land or by a combination of the two.

Here we analyze the consequences of global warming on agricultural crop yields and the people employed in their production using a global economic model with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans ability to work. While most of the agricultural impacts literature has focused on the effects of climate change on crop yields, we find that global labor force impacts dominate. This dominance is particularly striking at intermediate levels of warming (+2C to +4C) where apparent welfare gains in some regions are reversed, becoming significant losses once labor force impacts are considered. The losses are particularly pronounced in Africa, South- and Southeast Asia. There, heat stress at +3C means labor capacity in agriculture could fall by 20 – 30%, boosting food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector.

…

Double cropping (DC) means planting several crops in the same area and crop-year. For the Brazilian case the DC of soybean and maize has relative importance for recent dynamic land-use changes, especially in the North (Amazon biome) and MATOPIBA (Cerrado biome) regions. Since there is a knowledge gap in how is the better way to represent DC in a CGE framework we develop an explicit representation of DC adding light to this discussion. The area allocated to second crop of maize is dependent of the soybean production, i.e, as the area of soybean expands the area available for second crop of maize also expands. Under a simulated scenario of increased demand of soybean and maize the DC approach reduces the projected indirect land use change (iLUC) in 28% in Brazil as a whole compared a scenario where DC is not explicitly represented. At regional level, the projected iLUC reaches 44% and 38% for North and MATOPIBA regions, respectively. It means that exploiting the large area that has potential for double-cropping in Brazil coulbe be a sustainable path to increase agricultural production without further land conversion.

The Low-carbon Agriculture Plan in Brazil (ABC Plan) tries to conciliate sustainable growth of agricultural production and minimize the environmental impacts promoted by land-use changes. The agriculture, forest and other land uses (AFOLU) sector is the main source of GHG emissions in Brazil reaching in 2015 67% (1,310 Mt CO2eq) of total emissions. The implementation of pasture recovery and integrated systems technologies are therefore seen as a promising strategy for sustainable agricultural intensification in Brazil, since they can increase the organic matter in the soil, sequester carbon, as well as increase the production per hectare. This article analysis the relationship between these technologies and the land-sparing concept. Considering only the economic aspects of ABC Plan, the outcomes suggest that the interaction of both technologies promotes the land-spare effect in Brazil as a whole. There is a increase of natural and forest areas, specially those inside the rural establishments. However, the regional results show a different dynamic in the agricultural frontier. These regions intensify the pasture use to the detriment of native vegetation and forests areas.

The Low-carbon Agriculture Plan in Brazil (ABC Plan) tries to conciliate sustainable growth of agricultural production and minimize the environmental impacts promoted by land-use changes. The agriculture, forest and other land uses (AFOLU) sector is the main source of GHG emissions in Brazil reaching in 2015 67% (1,310 Mt CO2eq) of total emissions. The implementation of pasture recovery and integrated systems technologies are therefore seen as a promising strategy for sustainable agricultural intensification in Brazil, since they can increase the organic matter in the soil, sequester carbon, as well as increase the production per hectare. This article analysis the relationship between these technologies and the land-sparing concept. Considering only the economic aspects of ABC Plan, the outcomes suggest that the interaction of both technologies promotes the land-spare effect in Brazil as a whole. There is a increase of natural and forest areas, specially those inside the rural establishments. However, the regional results show a different dynamic in the agricultural frontier. These regions intensify the pasture use to the detriment of native vegetation and forests areas.

…

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impacts of reduced transport costs for the soy sector in the Brazilian regions. We use the model of General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG). To achieve the goal, it simulated an improvement in the transport system in the Brazilian regions of the soy sector, and the impact on the main shopping blocks. The results were consistent with the literature, showing that a reduction in transportation cost increases productivity and favor Brazilian exports.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impacts of reduced transport costs for the soy sector in the Brazilian regions. We use the model of General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG). To achieve the goal, it simulated an improvement in the transport system in the Brazilian regions of the soy sector, and the impact on the main shopping blocks. The results were consistent with the literature, showing that a reduction in transportation cost increases productivity and favor Brazilian exports.

…

This research aims to determine the spillover effects of rural credit promoted by the interest rate equalization policy (ETJ) on the Brazilian regions. This study uses the General Equilibrium Analysis Project for the Brazilian Economy (PAEG) to perform the analytical simulations. The results suggest that food, chemical, plastic and rubber, textile, and wood and furniture industries are indirectly positively affected by ETJ policy in Southern, Southeastern and Midwestern Brazil. The effects on service industry is small for all regions. For poor regions like the Northearn and Northeastearn, the results suggest a better public policy planning to maximize the direct and indirect effects.

The objective of this research is to develop an Environmental Social Development Index (IDSA) for the counties in the Legal Amazon. As the annual rate of deforestation dropped to low values since 2005 and it is necessary to identify the relationship of environmental policies goals, such as PPCDAm in economic and social variables. We used factor analysis in order to obtain the factor scores and clusters identification to construct the proposed index. The results indicate that around 51.6% of the municipalities in the region are in socio-environmental vulnerability situation, especially those located in the states of Pará, Maranhão and Amazonas. Only 16.8% of the municipalities - the vast majority in the state of Mato Grosso - have high IDSA. The results indicate that local and regional actions should be directed to the poorest areas of the Legal Amazon. Creation of large areas of environmental protection and sustainable use opens the possibility of a new pattern of regional economic exploitation, such as ecosystem services.

The aim of this research is to determine the spillover effects of rural credit from interest rates equalization policy (ETJ in Portuguese) over Brazilian agricultural sectors and regions. We use the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG in Portuguese). It is simulated two strategic scenarios. First, the ETJ policy is removed, after we consider the relocation of rural credit. The results indicate that sectors such as the food industry, chemical, rubber and plastics, textiles and wood and furniture are indirectly affected by ETJ policy in the South, Southeast and Middle West. The effects on the service sector are small for all regions of the model. For North and Northeast regions results indicate better public policy planning to maximize direct and indirect returns.

The aim of this research is to determine the spillover effects of rural credit from interest rates equalization policy (ETJ in Portuguese) over Brazilian agricultural sectors and regions. We use the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG in Portuguese). It is simulated two strategic scenarios. First, the ETJ policy is removed, after we consider the relocation of rural credit. The results indicate that sectors such as the food industry, chemical, rubber and plastics, textiles and wood and furniture are indirectly affected by ETJ policy in the South, Southeast and Middle West. The effects on the service sector are small for all regions of the model. For North and Northeast regions results indicate better public policy planning to maximize direct and indirect returns.

This study aims to measure the ability to pay in projects financing PRONAF for peach production in Southern State of Rio Grande do Sul. The objective is identifying how prices fluctuations change the payment capacity of family farmers. We use the Montecarlo methods to perform simulations of variable price and as a result is obtained that thirteen projects in the sample have no ability to pay the proposed funding. The assessment of repayment capacity indicates that the requested amount of funding is high when compared with the gross production of peach. The price fluctuations also contribute to possible increases in delinquency PRONAF. An analysis considering the non-farm income of the production units would add to the capacity payment.

This study measures the impact of a trade liberalization agreement between the United States and European Union on Brazilian agribusiness products. It uses an applied general equilibrium model (PAEG). The results show an increase in welfare in the regions involved in the agreement, $11 and $6 billion, respectively. However, Brazil loses $0.06 billion in welfare. There is a decrease of 0.25% on exports of these sectors and an increase in imports of only 0.01275%. Soybean and oilseed industry are the only sector with a positive response in production and in international trade flow.

This study measures the impact of a trade liberalization agreement between the United States and European Union on Brazilian agribusiness products. It uses an applied general equilibrium model (PAEG). The results show an increase in welfare in the regions involved in the agreement, $11 and $6 billion, respectively. However, Brazil loses $0.06 billion in welfare. There is a decrease of 0.25% on exports of these sectors and an increase in imports of only 0.01275%. Soybean and oilseed industry are the only sector with a positive response in production and in international trade flow.

This study measures the impact of a trade liberalization agreement between the United States and European Union on Brazilian agribusiness products. It uses an applied general equilibrium model (PAEG). The results show an increase in welfare in the regions involved in the agreement, $11 and $6 billion, respectively. However, Brazil loses $0.06 billion in welfare. There is a decrease of 0.25% on exports of these sectors and an increase in imports of only 0.01275%. Soybean and oilseed industry are the only sector with a positive response in production and in international trade flow.

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of a possible Free Trade Area between Mercosur and European Union (Mercoeuro) on economic growth, welfare and trade for the member countries. The theoretical basis is that of computable general equilibrium. The research problem is modeled through PAEG for Brazilian regions and Europe. The results point out to GDP growth, increased welfare as well as improvement in Brazilian trade. For the European Union, the results point out to GDP growth and welfare too, reduced exports of agricultural products and increased exports of manufactured goods.

O Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar (PRONAF) representa uma das mais importantes conquistas dos movimentos sociais do Brasil contemporâneo. O apoio financeiro às atividades agropecuárias está correlacionado com a capacidade que este setor da economia brasileira possui de gerar garantias e ao mesmo tempo capacidade de pagamento. À medida que os financiamentos são concedidos espera-se ao mesmo tempo redução de risco e inadimplência e que os objetivos finais da política pública sejam alcançados. A presença do risco em financiamentos agrícolas, através de oscilações de preços de mercado ou intempéries climáticas, as quais afetam diretamente a renda agrícola das unidades de produção, reforça o limite de alcance dos serviços financeiros. A medida de capacidade de pagamento utilizada é a razão entre o valor da receita agrícola líquida e o valor a ser reembolsado nas parcelas do contrato. A aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo mostrou-se útil para balizar a tomada de decisão em condições de incerteza dos preços agrícolas, contribuindo também com a redução da inadimplência, uma vez que o preço real que gera capacidade de pagamento do contrato é conhecido.