Spillover setorial do crédito rural subsidiado: uma aplicação de EGC para as grandes regiões brasileiras


The aim of this research is to determine the spillover effects of rural credit from interest rates equalization policy (ETJ in Portuguese) over Brazilian agricultural sectors and regions. We use the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian Economy (PAEG in Portuguese). It is simulated two strategic scenarios. First, the ETJ policy is removed, after we consider the relocation of rural credit. The results indicate that sectors such as the food industry, chemical, rubber and plastics, textiles and wood and furniture are indirectly affected by ETJ policy in the South, Southeast and Middle West. The effects on the service sector are small for all regions of the model. For North and Northeast regions results indicate better public policy planning to maximize direct and indirect returns.

In XIII Encontro de Economia da Região Sul
Cicero Lima
Cicero Lima
Research Economist