Margins of Adaptation to Human Heat Stress: Local, National, and Global Socioeconomic Responses

Abstract

The majority of agricultural climate impact studies focus on crop yields, ignoring the impacts on labor productivity. The few studies on global labor productivity impacts of climate tend to ignore socioeconomic adaptations. This study provides a multi-scale and multi-sector analysis of how the socioeconomic system responds to lower labor capacity due to climate-induced heat stress. Combining the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) framework with high-resolution projections of climate and population, we quantify the cascading economic impacts of heat stress as it alters labor capacity in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Then we investigate the role of different adaptation solutions at local, regional, and global scales. This includes investing in automation, changing production location, labor migration, domestic and international trade, and changes in patterns of consumption as well as in the changes in the structure of national economies.

Publication
In 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)